Executive Summary

S&P Historical Analysis

• Current Position Relative to 200d MA: SPY closing price $681.76 on 12/12/25 was +10.28% from the 200d MA.
• 28 Day Low Price: 36.64th percentile, 6.62% above 200d MA
• Historical Occurrences For 28 Day Low Level: In the last 10 years, when the index was at this percentage above the 200d MA, the price fell below the 200d MA within the next few weeks in 5 out of 447 instances.
• Context on Those Falls Below the 200d MA: Of those 5 instances, 3 occurred during periods of quantitative tightening (when central banks reduce their balance sheets).
• Quantitative Tightening Status: QT officially ended December 1, 2025.
• Average Duration Above 200d MA: 321.6 days.
• Current Streak: 214 days
• Current Price Percentile Above 200d MA Level: 71.51th percentile

{AI Generated summary of data above}

{RelativeMA_Occurrence_Count_Analysis.png}

Plot above accounts for all occurrences at current relative level from the 200d MA, omitting first 1 months after crossing above and one month prior to crossing below the 200d MA.

Below analyzes the area in each period where price stays above the 200d MA:

{RelativeMA_Area_Between_Price_and_200dMA_Analysis.png}

Volatility

{Todays_Volatility_20251130.png}

Below is the VIX. The VIX, often called the "fear index," is the ticker symbol for the CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility derived from S&P 500 index options prices. A high VIX (typically above 30) signals elevated fear and expected large price swings, while a low VIX (below 20) indicates calm and investor complacency. Traders and investors use the VIX to gauge overall market risk sentiment, hedge equity portfolios with VIX futures/options, time entries or exits during turbulent periods, and identify potential reversals when readings reach extreme levels.

{VIX_2025-12-01_14-34-08.png}

{PutCall_Ratio_Historical_20251201.png}

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a scale from 0 to 100, typically using a 14-period lookback. Readings above 70 indicate an asset is overbought (potentially due for a pullback or reversal), while readings below 30 suggest it is oversold (potentially setting up for a bounce). Traders use the RSI to identify overextended conditions, spot bullish/bearish divergences with price, confirm trend strength, and generate buy or sell signals in range-bound or trending markets.

See Technical Analysis section for RSI trends.

SPY Daily RSI: 73.15

RSI 21 day average: 51.85

QQQ Daily RSI: 69.87

RSI 21 day average: 50.43

Credit Spreads

{credit_spreads_chart_20251130_133016.png}

Technical Analysis

FRED.gov Charts

QT or QE

Yield Curve Inversion (10Y-2Y):

{US10Y-US02Y_2025-12-01_14-30-02.png}

FED Assets and Interest Rates:

{combined_fred_data_20251201_114925.png}

FED Assets Breakdown:

{fed_assets_breakdown_*.png}

U.S. Treasury Securities Held Outright: Tracks the face value of U.S. Treasury securities owned outright by the Federal Reserve as part of its System Open Market Account (SOMA). This is the largest component of the Fed's balance sheet and the main tool used in large-scale asset purchase programs (QE) to lower long-term interest rates.

Liquidity

Bank Cash Assets:Total Assets:

{cash_total_assets_*.png}

SOFR-IORB rate

{sofr_iorb.png}

Reverse Repo and TGA Account:

{reverse_repo_tga_chart_20251201_114947.png}

Overnight Repurchase Agreements:

{overnight_repo_*.png}

Unemployment

Unemployment and Jobless Claims:

{unemployment_chart_20251129_193517.png}